Agatha's Oversized Cinnamon Rolls
1 (.25 ounce) package active dry yeast 1 cup confectioners' sugar 1 cup milk 1 egg, at room temperature 1 ½ teaspoons ground cinnamon 3 ¾ cups all-purpose flour, divided 4 teaspoons water, or more if needed ¼ cup unsalted butter, cut into chunks ¼ cup unsalted butter, softened ½ cup chopped walnuts ½ cup packed light brown sugar ½ cup raisins ½ cup white sugar ½ teaspoon kosher salt